The Arab Spring Two Years On

The Arab Spring  continues  to occupy world attention two years after its emergence. Egypt, in terms  of its history, the size of its population, institutions and culture, remains at the centre of the uprisings. The elections  held after the downfall of Mubarak  brought the once outlawed Muslim Brotherhood  into government and its candidate, Mohammed Morsi  elected president. The  drawing up of the constitution, which was rushed through by a constituent assembly dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood(MB),  was boycotted by liberals and the left wing.  The constitution is not acceptable to them or the mass  movement of emancipation, which overthrew the dictatorial regime , because it  jeopardises basic human rights. It favours the Islamists and fails to uphold  the rights of the religious minorities like the  Christians, who make up about 10% of the population.  It does not protect the rights of women, entrenching domestic oppression .  The turnout at the  referendum  on the constitution was estimated at  30%  and was marred by abuses.  The state media claimed that 63% of those who voted, supported the charter.  The constitution has deeply polarised the country .

The Muslim Brotherhood  enjoys support from layers of the rural and urban poor as well as the urban middle class.  Many of its leaders are rich businessmen and it is pro-capitalist . The government  is implementing  a neoliberal programme, supporting continued privatisation,  promoting outsourcing of labour  and  the reliance on loans from the IMF. Furthermore, many of the ministers in the cabinet appointed by  the Morsi  regime were close allies of Mubarak.  The government is facing mounting opposition  to its authoritarian behaviour in imposing  its rule. It raised taxes on a wide range of consumer goods, including cigarettes, oil, beer, cement and fertiliser.  Its attempts to suppress  resistance to its policies,  led  to  the deaths of seven protesters and forced it  to cancel the tax rises. This triggered the delay in December  last year of  a $4.8 billion IMF loan to  the government, agreed to a month earlier.The planned  tax rises had been seen as vital for the  loan to go ahead.

The protests escalated and spread from central Cairo to other big cities, Port Said, Suez and Ismailia.  Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in defiance of a curfew, denouncing  Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood . The immediate trigger was the sentencing to death of 21 fans of Port Said’s football club, Al-Masry for their role in Egypt’s worst ever soccer violence last year. More than 30 people were killed, following protests at the sentence. The head of  the army has warned that continuing unrest may soon cause the collapse of the Egyptian state.

The effects of the policies of neoliberalism, accentuated by the impact of the global economic crisis, have produced mass unemployment and impoverishment. The class struggle is unfolding. In September 2011 ”a wave of militant strikes by teachers, doctors and workers in public transport, sugar refineries and the postal sector workers signalled a deepening struggle by workers that began to link political and economic questions”(A Hanieh “The Revolution Continues” – Socialist Resistance, Vol 70).  Teachers on strike for higher wages demanded more investment in schools, while doctors fought for improved health care and better hospitals.  The role of the MB in these strikes was to try to call them off . The strikes have continued to grow since the election of Morsi, with the workers attacking  him for failing to do anything to  improve the conditions under which they live.  There is no sign of a let up to the struggle and the streets  of Cairo and other big cities continue to be occupied by protesters.

Turning from Egypt to neighbouring Tunisia, which lit the spark for the Arab  spring to begin  , there is  a deepening ferment in the country.  The Tunisian people have lost their fear of the dictatorship  and have been challenging  the government  emerging from the October 2011 elections. This government  is dominated by the Islamists in the Ennahda  party with two secular parties in coalition and has failed to consider the demands  of the people, which led to the outbreak of the revolution.  Disagreements in the drawing up of a constitution have not been resolved. There has been  a reconstitution of the workers and social movement against a  neoliberal regime which is backed by the US, the EU and Qatar. While the people have won freedom of speech and restrictions on organisation have been lifted, the government seeks to tighten its grip on the press,  the administration of  justice and to restrict democratic space. There is increasing unemployment and impoverishment of the people.

In the forefront of  growing resistance to the regime is the Popular Front(PF). It is a broad based movement of workers  and social movements.  The independent  trade unions organised in the UGTT, because of their past and present roles in the resistance struggle, occupy a central  position in the PF . The murder of a leader of the PF, Chokri Belaid has sparked  a crisis in the country, A general strike was called on the day of his funeral, which was attended by tens of thousands of people. His assassin has not been caught. The opposition say that the Ennadha  is too permissive of the unprovoked violence, which is spreading in the country . Following the murder of Belaid,  the prime minister  announced his intention to form an interim non-partisan  government of technocrats to run  the country until elections can be held.  What will follow this period of transition  is uncertain. There is no sign however of a halt to the Arab spring either here or in Egypt.